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This Stock Market Indicator Has Been 86% Accurate Since 1984, and It Signals a Big Move in the Second Half of 2024

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) advanced 14.5% in the first half of 2024. That momentum was initially driven by rate-cut hopes. Investors entered the year thinking the Federal Reserve would…

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Business Cycle Indicators, end-June | Econbrowser

Nominal PCE slightly below consensus (+0.2% vs. +0.3%). Here are some key business cycle indicators followed by NBER BCDC, with real personal income ex-transfers flat (along with real consumption) Figure…

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The Best Energy Stock to Invest $1,000 in Right Now

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) stock has been at the back of the pack performance-wise over the past year, with a gain of just 2%. ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) is up 8% over…

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One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Stable

With Michigan final June survey out, we have this picture: Figure 1: Year-on-year actual CPI inflation (bold black), and expected inflation from University of Michigan (red), NY Fed (light green),…

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3 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks to Buy Now and Hold for Decades

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a transformative technology, and many businesses are rushing to capture a piece of this rapidly expanding market. Research outfit Statista forecasts that the AI industry will…

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Supreme Court Views on Price Stability and Full Employment

In the wake of the SCOTUS decision regarding Chevron deference, I investigate this issue. Here is a summary of academic research on Supreme Court views on these topics, separate from…

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Indexes cap stellar first half of 2024 with losses even after encouraging inflation report

Stock tradersDrew Angerer/Getty Images US indexes ended the day lower, despite market excitement over the latest PCE data. Both headline and core personal consumption expenditure readings came in 2.6% year-to-year.…

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Instantaneous PCE inflation in May

PCE hits consensus. Instantaneous (weighted average of m/m inflation, with more recent observations having higher impact) headline and core down. Figure 1: Instantaneous PCE inflation (T=12, a=4) per Eeckhout (2023)…

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